Weak Growth, Multiple Challenges
- Digital Arias
- 6 days ago
- 3 min read
Source: World Bank
Global growth is expected to slow down again this year amid an environment of restrictive monetary policies and financial conditions, as well as low levels of global trade and investment. Among the risks to the baseline projections are an escalation of the recent conflict in the Middle East, financial tensions, greater persistence of inflation, fragmentation of global trade, and climate-related disasters. Global cooperation is needed to provide debt relief, facilitate trade integration, address climate change, and reduce food insecurity. Within the group of emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), commodity exporters continue to struggle with procyclicality and fiscal policy volatility. Across all EMDEs, appropriate macroeconomic and structural policies, along with functioning institutions, are essential to help boost investment and long-term prospects.
Global Outlook
Global growth is projected to decrease to 2.4% in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of slowdown. Forecasts indicate that restrictive monetary policies and credit conditions, along with low levels of global trade and investment, will impact growth. The recent conflict in the Middle East has heightened geopolitical risks. Global cooperation is critical to address issues of high debt, climate change, trade fragmentation, and food insecurity. In emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), limited fiscal space highlights the need to improve spending efficiency. Decisive adoption of appropriate policies is necessary to foster a sustained acceleration of investment.
| PIB real (%) | Revisión* | |||||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023e | 2024f | 2025f | 2023e | 2024f | 2025f | |
Mundo | 6.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.3 | |
Economías avanzadas | 5.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 | -0.6 | |
Economías emergentes y en desarrollo | 7.0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
Asia oriental y el Pacífico | 7.5 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.4 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 | |
Europa y Asia central | 7.1 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 0.0 | |
América Latina y el Caribe | 7.2 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.1 | |
Oriente Medio y Norte de África | 3.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | |
Asia meridional | 8.3 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.9 | -0.2 | 0.5 | -0.5 | |
África al sur del Sahara | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 4.1 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.1 | |
* Diferencia en puntos porcentuales respecto de las proyecciones de junio de 2023. |
Regional Projections
The growth outlook for emerging market regions and developing economies varies in light of a series of international and internal events. It is expected that this year growth will slow in East Asia and the Pacific (mainly due to the slowdown in growth in China), Europe and Central Asia, and South Asia, but will rebound to varying degrees in other regions. Next year, forecasts suggest that growth will strengthen in most regions as the global recovery consolidates. Deterioration risks for the outlooks of all regions include escalating conflicts, rising volatility in energy and food prices, declining external demand, tightening financial conditions, and natural disasters related to climate change.
East Asia and the Pacific: Growth is expected to slow to 4.5% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025. For more information, see the regional outlook (i).
Europe and Central Asia: Growth is expected to moderate to 2.4% in 2024 and then increase to 2.7% in 2025. For more information, see the regional outlook (i).
Latin America and the Caribbean: Growth is projected to rise to 2.3% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025. For more information, see the regional outlook.
Middle East and North Africa: Growth is expected to rebound to 3.5% in 2024 and remain at that level in 2025. For more information, see the regional outlook (i).
South Asia: Growth is projected to decrease to 5.6% in 2024 and increase to 5.9% in 2025. For more information, see the regional outlook (i).
Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth is expected to rebound to 3.8% in 2024 and continue increasing to 4.1% in 2025. For more information, see the regional outlook (i).
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